NFL playoff player prop picks, predictions

The first five games of this NFL You gave us a wild weekend Too much drama and intrigue, and we have a good one in store on Monday night between the pirates and the cowboys.

For all the problems the Tampa Bay passing offense has had this year, the Bucs are rolling in just in time. The same cannot be said of Dallas, which has been mired in a turnover nightmare heading into the postseason.

Here are our three favorite prop bets to aim for betMGM Ahead of a special NFL Playoffs edition of “Monday Night Football” on the Final Wild Round:

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cowboy vs. hacker player props

Tom Brady over 277.5 yards (-110, betMGM)

By most accounts, it was the most frustrating season of Brady’s career and statistically least productive in years. However, he still averaged 276.1 yards per game, and he threw for a whopping 432 yards in his last complete start—his fourth game with at least 280 yards in his last five games (excluding Week 18).

This would look like a bad matchup on paper after the Cowboys allowed just eight passing yards per game (200.9). But they’ve been atrocious in recent weeks against the likes of Trevor Lawrence (318 yards), Gardner Minshew (355), Joshua Dobbs (232) and Sam Howell (169), who have averaged 268.5 passing yards per game over the last four years. Weeks against this Dallas defense.

It coincided with a string of injuries for the Cowboys’ minor leagues, with starting cornerbacks Anthony Brown (Achilles) and Jordan Lewis (foot) out for the year. Brady is a far superior passer in the competition Dallas has faced in recent weeks, and I expect him to relentlessly attack that mismatch in a relentless place.

Dak Prescott threw 0.5 interceptions (-165, betMGM)

We’ve bet on this exact prop on Prescott several times in recent weeks, and there’s no way we can get away from it this week – even if the price is probably a bit overpriced.

It’s easy to understand why with the way Prescott plays. He has thrown an astounding 11 interceptions in his last seven games with at least one in each contest, including four games with multiple-INT. He’s also coming off a grueling Week 18 in which he completed a career-worst 37.8 percent of his passes — and yes, he effectively threw a career-killing pick six a game for Dallas.

Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t been the most opportunistic this year, but it has caught at least one pass in three of the past four weeks. Against the NFL’s leader in interceptions (15), the Bucks should be able to lure Prescott into at least one fumble on Monday.

Betting on the NFL?

Mike Evans over 65.5 yards (-115, betMGM)

For all the reasons we love Brady’s passing prop, we’re all over Evans for surpassing his receiving total as well, after he finally snapped out of his slump in Week 17.

It’s not like the opportunity wasn’t there — Evans has been targeted at least eight times in 10 of his last 13 starts, and he finally turned that flashy target quota into a 10-time, 207-yard effort against the Panthers in his final regular season start. Although that result was clearly anomaly, it was Evans’ seventh game with at least 70 receiving yards in 15 starts this season.

I don’t expect him to reach 200 yards on Monday, but he will have his chances to shine against a depleted Dallas defense that has allowed the ninth most wide receivers by an opponent (156.7 per game). Evans cooked the Cowboys to 71 yards in Week 1, and he should be able to reach that total — or higher — this week.