NFL playoffs picks, odds and offers

A year ago, the Bengals were the ultimate underdog en route to their first Super Bowl appearance in 33 years. This time around, they’re among the favorites to win it all — and they’re heavily favored to beat the undermanned Ravens in a repeat of those teams’ regular-season finals.

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Baltimore is again without quarterback Lamar Jackson, who also sat out last week’s 27-16 loss in Cincinnati. The betting market expects a similar outcome on Sunday, with the Bengals considered near double-digit favorites in most deals to beat their division rivals.

Here’s how we’re betting on Sunday’s NFL playoff contest, which begins at 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC.

Choice between Bengals and Ravens

Bengals vs. Ravens Prediction and Analysis

This is certainly not the most popular bet as over 90% of bets at BetMGM were on the Bengals midweek before news of Jackson’s absence briefly raised that line to 10 points. That means there’s just too much value to ignore the underdog here, quarterback issues and all.

On paper, two of the best teams in the league go head-to-head in this duel. The Bengals rank fifth in the DVOA and have had top-12 finishes on offense (fourth) and defense (11th) all season. The Ravens are seventh overall with similarly good marks on offense (12th) and defense (7th) despite Jackson being sidelined for most of the past six weeks.

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In fact, prior to their Week 18 clash – when coach John Harbaugh practically waved the white flag before the game even started – Baltimore even ranked slightly higher than Cincinnati (12th) in net yards per game (10th). It also beat the Bengals head-on when those teams met in Week 5, albeit with Jackson under center.

That came amid a dominant stretch for the Ravens, who looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders after one of the best starts in NFL history. Baltimore became just the third team ever to lead by double digits in each of their first 10 games while never falling behind by double digits. It won just seven of those games, however, as late-game lapses on defense and Jackson’s own troubles in the fourth quarter reared their ugly head.

Then something strange happened. Jackson went down in Week 13, and the offense predictably stumbled. But the Ravens’ defense came alive.

Heading into that semi-meaningless final, Baltimore had conceded the NFL’s fewest points per game (13.1) and third fewest yards per game (292.8) since Week 13 and held five straight opponents to 16 or fewer points. Midseason newcomer Roquan Smith has anchored a truly elite defense that ranks first on the field in EPA/game (0.11) and second in opponent explosive play rate (8.3%).

That’s a key development ahead of Sunday’s game against the Bengals, who have a dangerous downfield passing game with Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase in the lead. Burrow has also been a bettor’s best friend for the past two years, covering a paltry 19 of his last 23 starts with a perfect 4-0 record against last year’s postseason spread.

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However, this week’s game presents a unique challenge for Burrow and company from a betting perspective. In the last 21 postseasons, we’ve only seen 20 teams favored by at least one touchdown in a game totaling 41 or fewer. Those teams went 7-12-1 against the spread — including a 2-6-1 ATS run since 2011 — and of the seven teams that covered, four won by 14 points or fewer.

Translation: There’s a narrow window to winning big in a low-goal game, which this one should be given that the Baltimore defense has been playing all along. Yes, there are serious questions for the street dogs on offense and a straight win would be a difficult task. But that number is too gaudy to place with much familiarity in a matchup between two elite rosters.

Bengals vs Ravens odds (via BetMGM)

• Bengal -9 (-110), money line -500
• Ravens +9 (-110), Moneyline +360
• O/U 40.5 (-110)